Wouldn’t it be great to know what the future will look like? Our 2016 Energy Perspectives report investigates three different scenarios towards 2040.

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Did you ever wonder what the future will look like?

Sometimes it would be great to have a crystal ball. What kind of car will you be driving in 2040, where will your electricity come from and will we just stop using oil and gas in the future? We don’t have all the answers, but watch our short videos to see what we believe could be your energy future.

Our industry is part of the energy challenges the world is facing, but we hope and believe that we can also be part of the solution.

The ambitions of the Paris agreement can be realized, but will require a tightening in energy and climate policies as well as significant and rapid improvements in energy efficiency. As global population grow and living standards rise, the world will need increasingly more energy. Sustainable energy. 

Energy Perspectives 2016 is a report on the global energy markets towards 2040. The future energy challenge is twofold; first to be able to provide clean and affordable energy for all by 2040, and second to reduce emissions on greenhouse gasses.

Future energy facts and figures—at a glance 


The world will need increasingly more energy and sustainable development requires significant and rapid improvements in energy efficiency. Foto: Statoil ASA

By 2040 the world will become two times richer, but energy demand will only increase moderately. *GDP - Gross domestic product. Foto: Statoil ASA

Even in scenarios with energy-related CO2 emissions consistent with the 2-degree target of global warming, oil and gas are likely to account for 45-50% of energy demand in 2040. Foto: Statoil ASA

Decline in existing production could cause a global production gap and investments are needed to replace production that would otherwise be falling Foto: Statoil ASA

The world will need increasingly more energy and sustainable development requires significant and rapid improvements in energy efficiency. Foto: Statoil ASA

By 2040 the world will become two times richer, but energy demand will only increase moderately. *GDP - Gross domestic product. Foto: Statoil ASA

Even in scenarios with energy-related CO2 emissions consistent with the 2-degree target of global warming, oil and gas are likely to account for 45-50% of energy demand in 2040. Foto: Statoil ASA

Decline in existing production could cause a global production gap and investments are needed to replace production that would otherwise be falling Foto: Statoil ASA

The only thing we know for sure is that the future is uncertain

We hope that the world reaches the 2-degree target of global warming. Our goal is to continue to be the most carbon efficient oil and gas producer in the world, providing energy for a low-carbon future.

To reach the global climate target we see that significant investments are needed, primarily in new renewable energy. But we also need large investments in oil and gas to replace production that is otherwise falling in order to provide the world sufficient amounts of energy.

However, there are considerable uncertainties when predicting energy development. To mirror this the Energy Perspectives report contains three future scenarios called Reform, Renewal and Rivalry. They are all distinctly different, reflecting world economy, global energy markets and energy-related climate emissions. 

REFORM

The scenario is amongst other factors based on the nationally determined climate commitments set in the Paris agreement, with a further tightening of policies in the decades to come. However, despite lower demand of coal and a considerable increase in the use of new renewables in 2040, this scenario is not sustainable and we will not reach the 2-degree target. 

RENEWAL

This is the most ambitious scenario in terms of energy and climate objectives and shows a possible way of reaching the 2-degree target. Radical changes will happen in technology, climate policies and in the transport and electricity sectors.

The demand for oil and gas in 2040 is just slightly below what it is today, but the main drivers for decreases in climate-related CO2 emissions are significant reductions in coal demand and an even higher growth in new renewables.

Rivalry

Geopolitical conflicts and larger differences in the world’s regional development both with regards to economic development and transformation of the energy systems will have an impact on the future of energy systems. 

Our analysis reveals a need for major investments within the whole energy sector – both in oil, gas, renewables, energy infrastructure and energy storage towards 2040.

Download the latest report